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The cold winter of the automobile industry is coming, sales continue to decline, car companies and suppliers have business difficulties one after another, suspension of production arrears of wages, bankruptcy news emerge one after another. In this environment, Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineering, believes that the automotive industry has not yet hit rock bottom, and the situation next year is not optimistic. I hope that car companies can make preparations as early as possible.

Fu Wu said that the economic transformation has brought a lot of pressure, and for car companies, the knockout stage has already begun. In the absence of subsidies in the future, it is only a matter of time before some car companies are marginalized and out. He believes that no matter how big the Chinese market is, there is no room for hundreds of vehicle factories, and now both independent, joint venture and foreign-funded car companies are facing the market test. Market elimination is fair, which is also conducive to the merger and reorganization of China's automobile industry, the most important thing at this stage is to change. In this context, car companies without brands, core technology and capital will collapse one after another.

Fu Yuwu also has his own views on the current situation of the new energy industry. He believes that "blood transfusion" cannot be managed for a lifetime, and that giving blood transfusions to car companies that have no market prospects and core competitiveness is to ruin themselves.

Fu Yuwu's remarks that hit the pain point of the industry are reflected in the continuous decline in car sales and the continuous deterioration of the industry environment. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, China's automobile production and sales have declined for 15 consecutive months compared with the same period last year, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles with high subsidies and high growth have also declined for three consecutive months. Therefore, both traditional car companies and new energy car companies are facing a great test.

In particular, independent-brand car companies, entering 2019, their own-brand sales share has repeatedly fallen below the 40% red line. From January to September this year, a total of 5.903 million passenger cars were sold in China, down 18.5% from the same period last year, accounting for 38.7% of the total passenger car sales, down 3.3% from the same period last year.

A number of auto executives have predicted that half of Chinese car brands will fail in the future. Tan Benhong, executive vice president of Changan Automobile, said, "China's automobile industry has entered a comprehensive phase of elimination. The stronger the strong, the greater the pressure on the weak." The survival of the fittest is even more obvious. 50% of Chinese car brands, I think, will cease to exist for some time soon. " In addition, an Conghui, president of Geely Automobile Group, said: "after 50 per cent of the car companies in China's auto industry go bankrupt, the remaining 50 per cent of the competition may be the fiercest."

From the sales situation of the major car companies, it can be seen that the situation is very grim, sales decline, losses have gradually become the mainstream. From the statistical list, 70% of the car companies' sales fell, and nearly 30% of the car companies fell by more than 50%. At the same time, only 11 of the autonomous car companies have increased their sales, while the remaining nearly 80% are in an uphill battle, and the decline in sales has directly led to reduced profits and losses.

(table: daily car; data: passenger Association)

According to the sales ranking in the first nine months of 2019, German and Japanese car companies performed better, while the rest showed different trends.

In the top 10, sales of Great Wall, Dongfeng Nissan and two Honda joint ventures increased, while North and South Volkswagen fell slightly, while Geely and Chang'an fell 15.7 per cent and 17.3 per cent, respectively. At the same time, the profits of the three car companies with the largest sales volume of independent car companies also fell sharply, including Geely Motor's first-half profit fell 40% to 4 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, Great Wall Motor's first-half net profit fell 1.517 billion yuan, down 50% from the same period last year. Changan Automobile (including joint venture brands) lost 2.24 billion yuan in the first half.

Front-line car companies are not stable, and then they are caught in a decline in mourning.

The joint venture car companies American and legal systems have become the hardest hit areas. SAIC GM's sales fell 15% in the first nine months, Changan Ford halved, and Guangzhou Auto Fick's sales fell 46.5%. The three French joint ventures are even more miserable, including DPCA's cumulative sales of 92800 vehicles in the previous September, down 54.6% from the same period last year; Dongfeng Renault less than 12000, down 73.6% from the same period last year; and Changan Peugeot Citroen DS brand sales of only 2027.

In terms of independent car enterprises, the sales volume of 21 independent car companies fell by more than 50%, including Beijing Automobile, BAIC Yinxiang, brilliance Automobile, Cheetah Automobile, Southeast Automobile, Quan Zhi Automobile, Lifan Automobile, Haima Automobile, specific Speed Automobile, Tianjin FAW, Dongfeng Yulong and so on.

It can be expected that in the process of rapid change of the market, the low-end backward enterprises will face elimination, and the sharp decline in sales is the current situation that they have to face. As Fu Yuwu, honorary chairman of the Society of Automotive Engineering, believes that in this context, car companies without brands, core technology, and capital will collapse one after another. Under the economic pressure of Hongguang, under such a severe market environment, many brand car companies have entered a critical moment of life and death.

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