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Expert: 1 million new energy vehicles are 80% policy-driven, and once withdrawn, the impact is huge.

2024-05-18 Update From: AutoBeta autobeta NAV: AutoBeta > News >

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AutoBeta(AutoBeta.net)09/18 Report--

With the gradual rise in sales of new energy vehicles in recent years, it also reflects the growing market demand, but at the global new energy vehicle supply chain innovation conference held in Nanjing a few days ago, Xu Changming, deputy director of the National Information Center and senior economist, said that of the 1 million vehicles in China, about 800000 are policy-driven.

According to Xu Changming, he made an in-depth analysis of the sales data and consumer behavior of new energy vehicles in China. In 2019, the total number of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.206 million, down 4 per cent from the same period last year, according to the China Automobile Association. But according to the analysis, about 800000 of the 1 million cars are policy-driven.

Among them, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles is 143000, which is basically affected by policy factors. 857000 passenger vehicles are sold, of which 393000 operating vehicles are affected by the policy, while private demand is 464000 sales. nearly half of the cumulative sales in restricted cities and unrestricted cities are also affected by policy factors.

Xu Changming believes that even so far, new energy vehicles have always been a policy-driven market, and the policies are roughly divided into three categories: the first category is subsidies, exemption from car purchase tax, exemption from consumption tax, and so on, as well as preferential policies from various places; the second is the preferential treatment of licenses; the third is the policy of direct intervention and direct promotion in specific areas. Therefore, there is still some distance from market promotion.

In his view, if new energy vehicles want to develop from 1 million to higher, they must be market-oriented. The so-called market-driven means that consumers buy voluntarily. However, from January to July this year, apart from the license plate problems in restricted cities, Model3 accounted for about 40% of B-class cars sold in non-restricted cities, while A00 accounted for about 40%. For example, Chery has very few middle-class cars such as Little Ant.

It can be seen that consumers considering these two models, either because of Tesla's "freshness" or economy, A00-class models are cheaper and cheaper to recharge. Moreover, Xu Changming also said that he had taken a long-distance ride on Tesla, and even if the sales were good, there was a big gap between its comfort and that of traditional fuel-fueled cars, which means that excluding these two factors, fewer consumers are willing to choose electric cars.

In addition, because of the current purchase of 300000 yuan of new energy models, you can also get a subsidy of 22500 yuan, as well as a maximum reduction of 26500 yuan in car purchase tax, and a reduction in consumption tax of about 23000 yuan, which is equivalent to a maximum discount of about 72000 yuan. It also plays a role in buying high-end models.

In this regard, Xu Changming believes that the policies can not be withdrawn immediately, if all are removed, the negative impact on new energy vehicles will be very great, and there should be appropriate policy support in order to have a smooth transition. At the same time, to sum up the future development of new energy models, car companies have to be either more attractive or more economical, and it is better to have both.

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Tesla's cumulative sales of 11811 Model 3 vehicles topped the list of new energy models in China in August, followed by Wuling Hongguang MINI, which went on sale last month, with a total of 9150 vehicles, according to the Federation of passengers. Both of them are significantly different from other models, which also reflects what Xu Changming said at present.

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